Estimation of extended mixed models using latent classes and latent processes: the R package lcmm

The R package lcmm provides a series of functions to estimate statistical models based on linear mixed model theory. It includes the estimation of mixed models and latent class mixed models for Gaussian longitudinal outcomes (hlme), curvilinear and ordinal univariate longitudinal outcomes (lcmm) and curvilinear multivariate outcomes (multlcmm), as well as joint latent class mixed models (Jointlcmm) for a (Gaussian or curvilinear) longitudinal outcome and a time-to-event that can be possibly left-truncated right-censored and defined in a competing setting. Maximum likelihood esimators are obtained using a modified Marquardt algorithm with strict convergence criteria based on the parameters and likelihood stability, and on the negativity of the second derivatives. The package also provides various post-fit functions including goodness-of-fit analyses, classification, plots, predicted trajectories, individual dynamic prediction of the event and predictive accuracy assessment. This paper constitutes a companion paper to the package by introducing each family of models, the estimation technique, some implementation details and giving examples through a dataset on cognitive aging

Score Test for Conditional Independence Between Longitudinal Outcome and Time to Event Given the Classes in the Joint Latent Class Model

Latent class models have been recently developed for the joint analysis of a longitudinal quantitative outcome and a time to event. These models assume that the population is divided in  G  latent classes characterized by different risk functions for the event, and different profiles of evolution for the markers that are described by a mixed model for each class. However, the key assumption of conditional independence between the marker and the event given the latent classes is difficult to evaluate because the latent classes are not observed. Using a joint model with latent classes and shared random effects, we propose a score test for the null hypothesis of independence between the marker and the outcome given the latent classes versus the alternative hypothesis that the risk of event depends on one or several random effects from the mixed model in addition to the latent classes. A simulation study was performed to compare the behavior of the score test to other previously proposed tests, including situations where the alternative hypothesis or the baseline risk function are misspecified. In all the investigated situations, the score test was the most powerful. The methodology was applied to develop a prognostic model for recurrence of prostate cancer given the evolution of prostate-specific antigen in a cohort of patients treated by radiation therapy.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79185/1/j.1541-0420.2009.01234.x.pd

A universal approximate cross-validation criterion and its asymptotic distribution

A general framework is that the estimators of a distribution are obtained by minimizing a function (the estimating function) and they are assessed through another function (the assessment function). The estimating and assessment functions generally estimate risks. A classical case is that both functions estimate an information risk (specifically cross entropy); in that case Akaike information criterion (AIC) is relevant. In more general cases, the assessment risk can be estimated by leave-one-out crossvalidation. Since leave-one-out crossvalidation is computationally very demanding, an approximation formula can be very useful. A universal approximate crossvalidation criterion (UACV) for the leave-one-out crossvalidation is given. This criterion can be adapted to different types of estimators, including penalized likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators, and of assessment risk functions, including information risk functions and continuous rank probability score (CRPS). This formula reduces to Takeuchi information criterion (TIC) when cross entropy is the risk for both estimation and assessment. The asymptotic distribution of UACV and of a difference of UACV is given. UACV can be used for comparing estimators of the distributions of ordered categorical data derived from threshold models and models based on continuous approximations. A simulation study and an analysis of real psychometric data are presented.Comment: 23 pages, 2 figure

Patient-perceived progression in multiple system atrophy: natural history of quality of life

Health-related quality of life (Hr-QoL) scales provide crucial information on neurodegenerative disease progression, help improving patient care, and constitute a meaningful endpoint for therapeutic research. However, Hr-QoL progression is usually poorly documented, as for multiple system atrophy (MSA), a rare and rapidly progressing alpha-synucleinopathy. This work aimed to describe Hr-QoL progression during the natural course of MSA, explore disparities between patients, and identify informative items using a four-step statistical strategy.We leveraged the data of the French MSA cohort comprising annual assessments with the MSA-QoL questionnaire for more than 500 patients over up to 11 years. The four-step strategy (1) determined the subdimensions of Hr-QoL in MSA; (2) modelled the subdimension trajectories over time, accounting for the risk of death; (3) mapped the sequence of item impairments with disease stages; and (4) identified the most informative items specific to each disease stage.Among the 536 patients included, 50% were women and they were aged on average 65.1 years old at entry. Among them, 63.1% died during the follow-up. Four dimensions were identified. In addition to the original motor, nonmotor, and emotional domains, an oropharyngeal component was highlighted. While the motor and oropharyngeal domains deteriorated rapidly, the nonmotor and emotional aspects were already slightly to moderately impaired at cohort entry and deteriorated slowly over the course of the disease. Impairments were associated with sex, diagnosis subtype, and delay since symptom onset. Except for the emotional domain, each dimension was driven by key identified items.Hr-QoL is a multidimensional concept that deteriorates progressively over the course of MSA and brings essential knowledge for improving patient care. As exemplified with MSA, the thorough description of Hr-QoL using the 4-step original analysis can provide new perspectives on neurodegenerative diseases' management to ultimately deliver better support focused on the patient's perspective

PLoS One

Quantifying the association between lifetime exposures and the risk of developing a chronic disease is a recurrent challenge in epidemiology. Individual exposure trajectories are often heterogeneous and studying their associations with the risk of disease is not straightforward. We propose to use a latent class mixed model (LCMM) to identify profiles (latent classes) of exposure trajectories and estimate their association with the risk of disease. The methodology is applied to study the association between lifetime trajectories of smoking or occupational exposure to asbestos and the risk of lung cancer in males of the ICARE population-based case-control study. Asbestos exposure was assessed using a job exposure matrix. The classes of exposure trajectories were identified using two separate LCMM for smoking and asbestos, and the association between the identified classes and the risk of lung cancer was estimated in a second stage using weighted logistic regression and all subjects. A total of 2026/2610 cases/controls had complete information on both smoking and asbestos exposure, including 1938/1837 cases/controls ever smokers, and 1417/1520 cases/controls ever exposed to asbestos. The LCMM identified four latent classes of smoking trajectories which had different risks of lung cancer, all much stronger than never smokers. The most frequent class had moderate constant intensity over lifetime while the three others had either long-term, distant or recent high intensity. The latter had the strongest risk of lung cancer. We identified five classes of asbestos exposure trajectories which all had higher risk of lung cancer compared to men never occupationally exposed to asbestos, whatever the dose and the timing of exposure. The proposed approach opens new perspectives for the analyses of dose-time-response relationships between protracted exposures and the risk of developing a chronic disease, by providing a complete picture of exposure history in terms of intensity, duration, and timing of exposure

Diet-Related Metabolites Associated with Cognitive Decline Revealed by Untargeted Metabolomics in a Prospective Cohort

Scope: Untargeted metabolomics may reveal preventive targets in cognitive aging, including within the food metabolome. Methods and results: A case-control study nested in the prospective Three-City study includes participants aged &65 years and initially free of dementia. A total of 209 cases of cognitive decline and 209 controls (matched for age, gen- der, education) with slower cognitive decline over up to 12 years are contrasted. Using untargeted metabolomics and bootstrap-enhanced penalized regression, a baseline serum signature of 22 metabolites associated with subsequent cognitive decline is identified. The signature includes three coffee metabolites, a biomarker of citrus intake, a cocoa metabolite, two metabolites putatively derived from fish and wine, three medium-chain acylcarnitines, glycodeoxycholic acid, lysoPC(18:3), trimethyllysine, glucose, cortisol, creatinine, and arginine. Adding the 22 metabolites to a reference predictive model for cognitive decline (conditioned on age, gender, education and including ApoE-ε4, diabetes, BMI, and number of medications) substantially increases the predictive performance: cross-validated Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve = 75% [95% CI 70-80%] compared to 62% [95% CI 56-67%]. Conclusions: The untargeted metabolomics study supports a protective role of specific foods (e.g., coffee, cocoa, fish) and various alterations in the endogenous metabolism responsive to diet in cognitive aging

Early signature in the blood lipidome associated with subsequent cognitive decline in the elderly: A case-control analysis nested within the Three-City cohort study

Background Brain lipid metabolism appears critical for cognitive aging, but whether alterations in the lipidome relate to cognitive decline remains unclear at the system level. Methods We studied participants from the Three-City study, a multicentric cohort of older persons, free of dementia at time of blood sampling, and who provided repeated measures of cognition over 12 subsequent years. We measured 189 serum lipids from 13 lipid classes using shotgun lipidomics in a case-control sample on cognitive decline (matched on age, sex and level of education) nested within the Bordeaux study center (discovery, n = 418). Associations with cognitive decline were investigated using bootstrapped penalized regression, and tested for validation in the Dijon study center (validation, n = 314). Findings Among 17 lipids identified in the discovery stage, lower levels of the triglyceride TAG50:5, and of four membrane lipids (sphingomyelin SM40:2,2, phosphatidylethanolamine PE38:5(18:1/20:4), ether-phosphatidylethanolamine PEO34:3(16:1/18:2), and ether-phosphatidylcholine PCO34:1(16:1/18:0)), and higher levels of PCO32:0(16:0/16:0), were associated with greater odds of cognitive decline, and replicated in our validation sample. Interpretation These findings indicate that in the blood lipidome of non-demented older persons, a specific profile of lipids involved in membrane fluidity, myelination, and lipid rafts, is associated with subsequent cognitive decline. Funding The complete list of funders is available at the end of the manuscript, in the Acknowledgement section